What inflation means and who measures it
Inflation is the general rise in prices over time. When inflation is high, the same rupee amount buys fewer goods and services.
In Pakistan, official price statistics come from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). PBS collects prices from markets across the country and publishes indices. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) uses these figures, together with its own analysis, when it sets monetary policy.
When people search for the "Pakistan inflation rate", they usually mean the headline national CPI figure, year on year. The sections below explain the measures PBS publishes.
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PBS CPI: national, urban and rural
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services that a typical household buys, such as food, housing, utilities, transport, education, health and clothing. Each item has a weight based on household spending surveys.
PBS publishes CPI in several forms:
| Measure | What it covers |
|---|---|
| CPI National | Combined figure for urban and rural Pakistan, the usual headline number |
| CPI Urban | Prices and spending patterns in cities |
| CPI Rural | Prices and spending patterns in rural areas |
Urban and rural baskets differ. Food usually carries more weight in the rural basket, so food price changes affect rural CPI more strongly. Housing and services weigh more in the urban basket.
How the change is reported
A CPI release usually shows the change in several ways:
- Year on year (YoY): the index this month compared with the same month last year. This is the figure most news reports quote.
- Month on month (MoM): the change from the previous month. It shows recent momentum.
- Period average: the average inflation for the fiscal year so far, compared with the same period last year.
The CPI uses a base year in which the index is set at a reference level. PBS rebases the index from time to time with a new basket and weights. When you compare index values, always use figures from the same base. Check the current base year on the PBS website.
Core inflation
Headline CPI includes food and energy, which can move sharply because of harvests, global oil prices or administered tariff changes. Core inflation removes or reduces these volatile items to show the underlying trend.
PBS and the SBP follow two main core measures:
- Non-food non-energy (NFNE): CPI without food and energy items.
- Trimmed mean: removes the items with the most extreme price changes each month, at both ends, and averages the rest.
Both are reported separately for urban and rural areas. Core inflation matters for monetary policy because it moves more slowly. If headline inflation falls only because fuel became cheaper, core inflation may still stay high.
SPI: the weekly price indicator
The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) is a weekly measure. It tracks prices of essential items, mostly food staples, fuel and basic household goods, in major cities.
Key points about SPI inflation:
- It is published every week. CPI is published monthly.
- It covers a short list of essentials, not the full household basket.
- PBS also reports it by consumption groups, from lower-income to higher-income households.
- It is an early signal of price pressure on basic goods. It is not the official inflation rate.
A big weekly SPI move often comes from a few items, such as onions, tomatoes, LPG or petrol. For this reason, SPI can swing far more than CPI. Read it as a short-term indicator.
Release schedule
PBS releases monthly CPI early in the following month. SPI is usually released at the end of each week. The SBP discusses inflation in its Monetary Policy Statements and inflation monitor publications.
Exact release days can change, especially around public holidays. Check the current calendar on the official PBS website (pbs.gov.pk) and note the date you checked. For release times converted to Pakistan time, see the economic calendar (PKT) and bank holidays.
Inflation calculator: value of money between two dates
To see how much purchasing power money has lost, compare the CPI index at the two points in time:
- Adjusted value = original amount × (end index ÷ start index)
- Cumulative inflation = (end index − start index) ÷ start index, shown as a percentage
Enter the two CPI index values and an amount in the calculator below.
Fill in the empty fields to see the result.
Value at the end = amount × CPI(end) / CPI(start). Use the official consumer price index of your country.
Tips for accurate results:
- Use index values from the same CPI series (national, urban or rural) and the same base year.
- Take index values from the PBS release itself, not from rounded news figures.
- The result is an average for the basket. Your own costs may have risen faster or slower, depending on what you spend on.
Monthly YoY rates cannot simply be added together. Use the index values, as the calculator does, to get cumulative inflation.
Inflation, interest rates and the rupee
The SBP sets its policy rate partly in response to inflation. The latest decision on the SBP homepage reads: SBP policy rate raised by 50 bps to 12% with effect from 27.10.2026 (MPC). For background, see the SBP policy rate and KIBOR pages.
The real interest rate is the nominal rate minus inflation. It shows whether savings keep their value. If inflation is above the return on a deposit or certificate, the money loses purchasing power even while the balance grows. Compare options on the savings and deposits and National Savings schemes pages.
Inflation also affects the exchange rate over time. See what moves the rupee and gold in Pakistan.
How traders read inflation data
Inflation releases are a key input in fundamental analysis. Markets react to the gap between the released figure and expectations, more than to the figure itself. A CPI print above expectations can shift views on future policy rates and move the rupee, local bonds and PSX shares.
Prices can move sharply and spreads can widen around data releases. Leveraged CFD and forex trading can lose money fast, including more than you planned to risk. Read risk management before trading around any release. Also check the legal position for Pakistani residents on law and regulators.
Frequent questions
What is the difference between CPI and SPI?
CPI is the official monthly inflation measure for the full household basket. SPI is a weekly indicator that tracks only essential items in major cities.
Which figure is the official Pakistan inflation rate?
The headline figure is CPI National, year on year, published monthly by PBS.
Why do urban and rural inflation differ?
The baskets and weights differ. Rural CPI gives more weight to food, so food price changes affect it more.
What does core inflation exclude?
The NFNE measure excludes food and energy. The trimmed mean removes the items with the most extreme price changes each month.
Can I add monthly inflation rates to get the yearly total?
No. Use the CPI index values at the start and end dates, as the calculator on this page does.
Where do I find the latest PBS CPI release?
On the official PBS website, under price statistics. Note the date you checked, because figures and base years are revised from time to time.