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Spot vs Futures Gold: Why the Prices Differ

This guide explains the gold spot price, gold futures, the gap between them, and how a CFD quote such as XAUUSD is derived.

Extrade Pakistan editorial team ·

On this page
  1. What the gold spot price is
  2. What gold futures are
  3. Spot vs futures: the basis
  4. How an XAUUSD CFD price is derived
  5. Where Pakistan fits
  6. Frequent questions

What the gold spot price is

The gold spot price is the price for gold bought now and delivered after the usual short settlement period. It is quoted in US dollars per troy ounce (see Ounce, Tola and Gram).

There is no single exchange for spot gold. Most of it trades over the counter (OTC), meaning directly between banks, dealers and refiners, centred on the London market. The "spot price" you see on a screen is a composite of bids and offers from these dealers. Different data providers can show slightly different figures at the same moment. For the wider picture, read How Gold Price Is Set.

This page does not show a live gold price. We only publish a live price when a licensed or official data source is confirmed. To work out position values, use the calculators with a price you enter yourself.

ContangoBackwardationSpot036912months to deliveryprice
Futures prices by delivery month: above the spot price (contango, typical when storage and financing cost money) or below it (backwardation, when supply is tight now). Schematic shapes for learning, not real market data.

What gold futures are

Gold futures are standardised contracts to buy or sell a fixed quantity of gold at an agreed price on a set future date. The best-known market is COMEX, part of CME Group in the United States.

Key features:

The "gold price" quoted in news headlines is often the COMEX front-month future, not spot. That is one reason figures differ between sources.

Spot vs futures: the basis

The difference between a futures price and the spot price is called the basis. For gold, the futures price is normally above spot. That gap mainly reflects the cost of carry:

As expiry approaches, the carry cost shrinks and the futures price converges towards spot.

Contango and backwardation

Term Meaning How common in gold
Contango Later futures priced above spot and above nearer months The normal state
Backwardation Futures priced below spot Rare; usually signals a short-term shortage of physical metal

Contango does not mean the market expects prices to rise. It is mostly arithmetic based on interest and storage costs, not a forecast.

How an XAUUSD CFD price is derived

A CFD (contract for difference) is an agreement with a broker to exchange the change in price of an asset. You do not own any gold. The XAUUSD price on a trading platform is a CFD quote on gold against the US dollar.

Brokers usually build it like this:

  1. Underlying feed. Most XAUUSD CFDs follow the OTC spot market, using prices streamed from banks and liquidity providers. Some brokers also offer gold CFDs based on a futures contract.
  2. Spread. The broker quotes a bid and an ask. The gap is the spread, a trading cost. For more detail, see XAUUSD spread.
  3. Swap. Spot-based CFDs charge or pay an overnight swap. This plays the same role as the carry cost built into futures. See Swap fees.
  4. Rollover. Futures-based CFDs move to the next contract before expiry. Because of contango, the price can jump at the roll, and brokers usually apply an adjustment to open positions.

This means a spot-based XAUUSD quote and a COMEX futures quote at the same moment are expected to differ by roughly the basis plus each side's spread.

Leveraged CFD trading can lose money fast, and losses can exceed what you expected when you opened the position. Read Risk management before trading any gold product. For other ways to hold gold, compare Physical vs Paper Gold.

Where Pakistan fits

Local gold rates in Pakistan are derived from the international price, the PKR/USD exchange rate and local premiums. See Gold in Pakistan.

On regulation, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), with trading in listed securities and commodities only via SECP-licensed securities and futures brokers. Also, per the SECP, lists of licensed brokers are on the PSX and PMEX websites. On offshore platforms, per the SECP, offshore platforms have no Pakistani licence or oversight and offer no legal protection or recourse. Details are in Law and regulators.

Frequent questions

Is the gold spot price the same everywhere?

No. Spot gold trades OTC, so each data provider shows its own composite. The differences are usually small but real.

Why is the gold futures price higher than spot?

Mainly because of the cost of carry: interest on the money, plus storage and insurance, minus the lease rate. This state is called contango.

Does contango mean gold will go up?

No. It reflects financing and storage costs, not a forecast of future prices.

Is XAUUSD spot or futures?

On most platforms XAUUSD follows spot prices plus the broker's spread, with overnight swaps added. Check your broker's contract specifications to confirm the underlying.

Why does the price in the news differ from my platform?

News often quotes the COMEX front-month future, while a platform's XAUUSD usually tracks spot. The two differ by the basis and by spreads.

Sources

  1. Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (press release, 22.05.2025) · secp.gov.pk › Press Release SECP Warns Public Against Fraudulent Online Trading Plat — checked 2026-11-11
  2. Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (press release, 13.01.2026) · secp.gov.pk › Press Release SECP Warns General Public to Beware of Unauthorized Inve — checked 2026-11-11
  3. Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (press release, 09.04.2025) · secp.gov.pk › Press Release SECP Cautions Public Against Illegal Offshore Trading an — checked 2026-11-11

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