Fill in the empty fields to see the result.
| Reward to risk | Without costs | With your costs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50% | 50% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40% | 40% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 1 : 2.5 | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| 1 : 3 | 25% | 25% |
| 1 : 4 | 20% | 20% |
| 1 : 5 | 16.7% | 16.7% |
Break-even win rate = 1 / (1 + R); with costs c per trade (in R): (1 + c) / (1 + R). Above it the arithmetic is positive; it says nothing about whether a method reaches it.
The result appears next to the inputs. The fields start with neutral sample values. Replace them with your own numbers.
What the calculator shows
The break-even win rate is the share of trades that must be winners for a series of trades to end at zero. Below that rate the series loses money. Above it the series gains, before any other effects.
You enter:
- Reward-to-risk ratio (R): your planned profit on a winning trade divided by your planned loss on a losing trade. A target twice as far as your stop gives an R of two.
- Costs per trade, in R: spread, commission and swap for a round trip, expressed as a share of the amount you risk. A cost that equals a tenth of your stop distance is a tenth of R.
The calculator returns the required win rate and a table of required win rates for a range of reward-to-risk ratios at the same cost level.
Ready to try it on a real or demo account?
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Formula
Without costs:
Required win rate = Risk ÷ (Risk + Reward)
This is the same as dividing the risk by the sum of risk and reward. A higher reward compared with risk means a lower required win rate.
With costs, a win pays the reward minus the cost, and a loss takes the risk plus the cost. The break-even point becomes:
Required win rate = (Risk + Cost) ÷ (Risk + Reward)
All three values use the same unit. You can use money, pips or units of R. The calculator works in units of R, so risk counts as a single unit.
How costs move the result
Costs raise the required win rate at every ratio. The effect is strongest when the stop is tight, because the same spread is then a larger share of the amount you risk. A scalping setup with a small stop can need a much higher win rate than the cost-free formula suggests. Compare a few cost levels in the tool to see this.
To put a money value on spread and commission for a given trade, use the trade cost calculator. To check the reward and risk of a single setup, use the risk-reward calculator. Swap on positions held overnight is covered on the swap calculator.
What the number does not tell you
- It does not say your strategy will reach that win rate. Only your own trade records can show that.
- It treats every win and every loss as the same size. Real exits vary because of slippage, partial closes and moved stops.
- It says nothing about losing streaks. Even a strategy above break-even can go through a deep drawdown. The trade series simulator and the drawdown recovery calculator show this side.
Leveraged forex and CFD trading can lose money fast, including more than you planned if prices gap past a stop. A break-even figure is a planning check, not a forecast. Read more on risk management.
Frequent questions
What is a good win rate?
No single win rate is good on its own. A win rate only means something next to the reward-to-risk ratio and the costs. This page shows the minimum for a given ratio. It does not show a target.
Why is my required win rate higher than the formula without costs?
Costs reduce each win and enlarge each loss. The cost field in the tool shows the size of that shift.
How do I convert my spread into R?
Divide the spread plus commission, in pips, by your stop-loss distance in pips. Enter the result as the cost per trade.
Can I use this for gold or indices?
Yes. The formula works for any instrument as long as risk, reward and cost use the same unit.
Where can I practise without real money?
A demo account lets you record trades and measure your actual win rate before you risk funds.